Space Transportation Operations Cost Modeling and the Architectural Assessment Tool - Enhanced
E. Zapata, NASA John F. Kennedy Space Center and Dr. A. Torres, Florida Gulf Coast University, Fl
FOR THE
50th International Astronautical Congress
Presented Amsterdam, the Netherlands, October, 1999
DOWNLOAD >> IAF_99_Final_AATe.pdf (.pdf File - 314 KB)
Abstract
This paper presents an approach to space transportation operations cost modeling which synergistically combines knowledge capture with data. The functioning model derived from this approach will be described. As with any model, the goal is to gain insights into systems which do not yet exist, in this case advanced reusable launch vehicle (RLV) concepts. These insights include the interaction of a launch vehicle with its ground infrastructure, hereafter referred to as the spaceport. These interactions include the need, or not, for multiple facilities and ground support equipment (GSE), costs resulting from acquiring facilities and GSE, time cycles and costs resulting from flight vehicle design and operational decisions, and costs per pound for a resulting flight rate. These interactions also include the variation of all these factors when a concept strives to meet a desired demand, or yearly space-lift requirement. The significance of this approach to space transportation cost modeling, particularly operations, will be shown in relation to the current state of operations cost modeling. Further, the potential use of such an approach in multitudes of decision making opportunities today, ranging from technology investment to business decisions, will be outlined. A work in progress for the extension of this approach to a broad range of space transportation systems will also be described. The latter is called the Vision Spaceport project.
Further, work in the application of this model to both near and far term studies will be reviewed. In the near term, NASA has recently completed a Space Transportation Architecture Study (STAS) for 1999. This study had as it’s objectives determining: (1) should the Space Shuttle system be replaced, (2) if so, when the replacement should take place and how the transition should be implemented, and (3) if not, what is the upgrade strategy to continue safe and affordable flights of the Space Shuttle. The use of the model and approach presented here, applied in support of this study, will be summarized for this sample set of cases.
In the far term, the application of this tool to the Space Solar Power (SSP) study will also be summarized. The SSP study has, as one of its objectives, a definition of Earth-to-Orbit concepts that are capable of meeting the economic challenges of the broader SSP project. This includes defining concepts capable of hundreds of flights per year per vehicle, at costs in the range of 100’s of dollars per kilogram. The types of concepts derived and the characteristics of these, as well as implications for spaceport development, and overall flight and ground technology development will be briefly summarized.
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Edgar Zapata, NASA Kennedy Space Center
Shuttle Process Engineering Directorate, Fluid Systems Division